Earnings season starts with a quiet beat from the banks
Net interest margins held better than feared.
The decision-makers involved insist nothing is settled, which is exactly what decision-makers say when something is starting to settle.
The numbers tell part of the story. The rest lives in the texture of how people are actually behaving when no one is watching.
A small group of practitioners has been arguing for this approach for years. They are doing their best not to look smug.
Observers describe a mood of cautious optimism, the kind that travels in private conversations long before it appears in any press release.
Practical effects are already visible on the ground, and they tend to outrun the official analysis by a comfortable margin.
Outside the room, the response has been faster, messier, and considerably more interesting.
